Follow-up on Kunstler, who does do us the favor of provoking discussion about these issues - I am feeling Geoff Styles's take on the peak oil show, read it all if you're into this, emphases added:
Just as I regard public perception of climate change--rather than the underlying science--as the key factor influencing the steps that the US will take concerning global warming, I'm beginning to think that the key aspect of "peak oil" is not whether the geological theories of King Hubbert and his adherents can accurately predict a peak in global oil production, but how many people believe this is so, and what it prompts them to do about it. In essence, "peak oil" is a meme, and the proliferation of that meme--whether it's correct or not--can alter the way we look at the future of oil.
An extended period of high and volatile oil prices, with producers straining to meet demand, is tailor-made for validating belief in "peak oil". Only after the fact can we truly determine whether these events were the early signposts of a permanent peak in oil production, or simply a temporary alignment of factors favoring producers at the expense of consumers. That suggests that the longer these market conditions persist, the more they will reinforce the idea that oil is nearing its peak, and the further this notion will move into the mainstream.
That could have many positive consequences. Congress and the federal government might finally focus on the need for more energy efficiency and aggressive R&D on alternatives. Some of the impediments to our continued shift toward natural gas, which will have to rely heavily on imports of liquefied natural gas, might be removed. "Peak oil" even dovetails nicely with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, since petroleum consumption in the transportation sector contributes to higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
What would not be helpful, however, is a perception that further oil exploration and development are futile...